No. 5 Houston (10-1, 0-0 AAC) at No. 2 Virginia (8-0, 1-0 ACC)
2 p.m., ESPN2
After a 10-day exam break, the unbeaten Cavaliers return to action Saturday for a massive collision at JPJ.
This weekend’s game will pit a pair of top five teams against each other, a rematch between the two after UVa’s lopsided 67-47 loss at Houston last season.
Saturday’s game was nearly a 1 vs 2 matchup, if not for Houston suffering its first loss of the season last weekend. The Cougars rolled to a 9-0 start, dispatching four teams in the top 100 of Kenpom’s rankings (Oregon, Kent State, Saint Marys and Oral Roberts). Then, despite holding a double-digit lead in the second half, Houston was stunned on Saturday by Alabama, which rallied for a 71-65 win on the road. The Cougars did bounce back on Tuesday night with a comfortable win over North Carolina A&T.
They will be yet another tough test for a UVa team already with wins against four teams in KenPom top 76 and three in the top 44.
This will also be the biggest non-conference contest at home for the Hoos and one of the biggest games in JPJ in recent memory. A win could also send the Cavaliers to No, 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since the 2017-18 season.
The Numbers
From an efficiency standpoint, Houston is probably the best team UVa will face this season. The Cougars are No. 2 in the KenPom rankings after starting the season No. 7. The Cougars are very solid on the offensive end and are downright dominant on defense.
With the basketball, Houston ranks 30th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Like UVa, the Cougars are more than okay playing at a deliberate pace, ranking 348th nationally in average tempo. This Houston team is similar to the one UVa played last year, with an athletic lineup built to slash to the basket and work hard on the glass. The Cougars rank fifth nationally in offensive rebound rate, and take good care of the ball with a low turnover rate. Houston isn’t a team that typically lights it up from 3, however. The Cougars shoot just 32.9 percent from deep, ranking 200th nationally. Houston also has struggles at the free-throw line from time to time, making just 69.2 percent from the stripe.
On defense, Houston has been a nightmare for opposing offenses. The Cougars are holding opponents to a 37.1 effective field-goal percentage, second-lowest nationally. Foes are shooting just 23.7 percent from long range and 38.4 on twos, both top three nationally for a defense. Houston ranks first nationally in block rate, 13th nationally in turnover rate forced, and 11th nationally in steals.
Quite frankly, in eight seasons of previews, this is the best overall defensive profile that I’ve seen. Granted, it’s early in the season, but Houston’s defense is absolutely elite across the board.
The Matchups
Houston’s lineup has a great blend of young talent and experience, and plenty of ways to hurt opponents. That starts with guard Marcus Sasser, one of the nation’s best players. The 6-foot-2 senior was banged up in Houston’s win over North Florida, but was able to return for the Alabama game. On the season, he is averaging 16.2 points per game, with three 20+ point efforts already. Sasser is a great driver and is a creative scorer, though he shoots just 30.6 percent from 3. He is joined in the backcourt by veterans Tramon Mark and Jamal Shead. Mark, a junior, is third on the team in scoring at 9.3 points per game, and is another guy that can create off the bounce and make plays at the rim. Shead is also a junior, averaging 7.5 points and a team-high 5.7 assists per game, playing a team-high 31.2 minutes per contest.
Houston doesn’t have a very big frontcourt but there’s plenty of talent and versatility there, too. Star freshman Jarace Walker has made an immediate impact for the Cougars, and is second on the team in scoring with 9.4 points per contest. The 6-foot-8 rookie from Pennsylvania is one of the team’s better rebounders (at 6.5 per game) and 3-point shooters (making 37.5 percent of his attempts). The 6-foot-7 J’Wan Roberts is putting up similar numbers, at 9.3 points and 7.1 boards per contest. The junior has seen a significant uptick in role from last year, when he played just 16.2 minutes per game, moving into a starting spot this season. Sophomore Ja’Vier Francis is another player worth keeping an eye on, following a 17-point, 15-rebound effort in Tuesday’s win over NC A&T.
The Outlook
Not to over-simplify, but the status of Reece Beekman could be a deciding factor in this game.
On paper, given the game’s location, these two teams seem dead even, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. In theory, UVa’s defense is designed to stop what Houston does, and make the Cougars try to break tendency and make a bunch of threes. But Beekman is UVa’s most-valueble defensive piece and has a major influence on the offensive end as well. If he can’t go, UVa is going to ask a lot of Isaac McKneely in a big spot. And if Beekman can go, how healthy he is ultimately will still be a key factor in this game.
Expect this one to be a defense-first slugfest, with the first team to 60 likely coming out on top. UVa has flashed a high offensive ceiling at times this season and, while Houston has a shut-down defense, the Cavaliers are capable of getting hot and making enough shots to win this game. Foul calls could also be a big factor in between two teams that like to play physical defense, and there are likely to be plenty of clashes in the paint.
With Beekman’s status up in the air, we’ll go with Houston in a close one. If Beekman was 100 percent we’d probably flip the results and give UVa a slight edge. This one could still go either way, but Houston is the type of team that could really give an undermanned UVa backcourt problems, if that comes to pass. Regardless, JPJ should be jumping for a big-time December clash before the Hoos turn their focus to ACC play.