UVa (12-5, 3-3 ACC) at Georgia Tech (9-8, 2-4 ACC)
6 p.m., ACC Network
After going two weeks without a victory, UVa earned a much-needed victory over rival Virginia Tech at home on Wednesday night. Now, the Hoos will try to stay on track and finally get a win away from JPJ when they travel to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech tomorrow night.
UVa continued its home dominance against the Hokies, extending the nation’s longest home win streak to 20 games. But the Cavaliers have yet to win away this season (0-4) and last won on the road 338 days ago at Louisville. They have won just three of their last seven games overall with their average margin of defeat on the road coming by 20.3 points.
Awaiting UVa is a Georgia Tech team that has been up and down but is coming off of a major victory. The Jackets lost five straight dating back to December, including several close contests and four losses to top-100 competition. GT broke that streak on Tuesday night, though, stunning Clemson 93-90 in double overtime at Littlejohn Coliseum. The win was GT’s first in nearly a month and second in league play, having beaten Duke back in early December.
Like most ACC teams, the Jackets have struggled against Virginia in recent years. UVa won last year’s meeting by 18 in McCamish and haven’t beaten the Hoos in eight years, which was when they bested a Cavalier team that included Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill by four points at home. GT was picked near the bottom of the league (13th) in their first season under new coach Damon Stoudamire, who previously was the big whistle at Pacific for five season but was most recently an assistant in the NBA with the Boston Celtics.
The Numbers
Georgia Tech’s efficiency numbers are outside the top 100 overall and on both ends of the floor. The Jackets rank 113th nationally in KenPom; for reference, that makes them the lowest-ranked team UVa has faced since their win over Louisville (No. 190) on January 3 and makes them one of just three teams outside the top 100 in the ACC (joining UL and No. 156 Notre Dame).
The Yellow Jackets rank 102nd nationally in offensive efficiency and if they get hot from 3 on Saturday, it will buck a trend. They have made just 31.9 percent of their 3s this season, which ranks 242nd nationally. Like Virginia, GT struggles at the free-throw line at times, making just two thirds of its attempts from the stripe. GT ranks 199th nationally in turnover rate and is outside the top 100 in assists to made field goals ratio. The one area where the Jackets have been solid is on the offensive glass, where they rank 50th nationally.
Defensively, they rank 144th nationally in efficiency. In its losing streak, Tech allowed every opponent to reach 72+ points, with three of the five scoring 82 or more. The Jackets are one of the worst teams in the nation at creating takeaways, ranking 348th in turnover rate and 338th in steal rate. They do block a good number of shots, ranking 72nd in block rate, and opponents are making just 30.7 percent of their 3s.
The Matchups
Miles Kelly, Guard
GT’s leading scorer, Kelly is in his third year with the Jackets and seems to have taken to the new coach and system. He is averaging 15.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game and has scored 10+ points in his last seven contests, including a 16-point, 11-rebound effort at Duke last weekend. Kelly isn’t a tremendous outside shooter but he’s a better one at home, where he shoots 32 percent, much better than his 20.9 percent average away from Atlanta.
Baye Ndongo, Forward
A Senegalese freshman, Ndongo has been one of the league’s young breakout performers this season. He is second on the team in scoring at 12.7 points per game and leads the team in rebounds with 8.9 per contest. Ndongo recorded a double-double in the win at Clemson on Tuesday night and the 6-foot-9 rookie has four double-doubles on the year, including a 19-rebound performance against Penn State.
Kowacie Reeves, Guard
The Jackets added Reeves, a Macon native, to their roster in the offseason via the transfer portal. After two years at Florida, he transferred to GT, where he’s scoring 12.2 points per game. Reeves has dramatically improved his 3-point average from 26.2 percent last year with the Gators to 41.9 percent this season. He scored all of his 15 points from beyond the arc against Clemson, going 5-for-7 from deep in the win.
Naithan George, Guard
GT’s leading assist man is another breakout freshman playing a big role in Stoudamire’s first year leading the program. George, a Toronto native, is averaging 8.9 points and 4.7 assists per contest. The 6-foot-3 guard is coming off of the best game of his young career, scoring a career-best 20 points on 4-of-7 from 3 with 6 assists against the Tigers.
The Outlook
On a neutral court, UVa has the better team, and it would be easier to pick the Hoos without thinking twice. However, this is a Virginia team that hasn’t just lost every road game, it’s looked dreadful away from home. And Georgia Tech has proven that it can punch above its weight, having beaten a good Duke team in Atlanta as well as Mississippi State (No. 30 in KenPom) and the aforementioned win over Clemson which was impressive.
It’s possible that UVa found something in the win over Virginia Tech, with Jordan Minor emerging and Dante Harris returning from injury. It’s also possible that their latest win was just another example of how dominant the Wahoos can be at home and won’t apply away from JPJ. There’s nothing to do but wait and see, yet at a minimum its encouraging to see Minor developing into a legitimate factor in the rotation and its great for UVa to have Harris back on the floor, particularly on the defensive end.
Still, we’re in “show me” mode for UVa on the road. Until the Cavaliers demonstrate that they can win in another team’s gym, or at least lose in competitive fashion, the opponent will get the nod.