Duke (17-7, 8-5 ACC) at No. 8 UVa (18-4, 10-3)

4 p.m., ESPN

Following a solid victory at home on Tuesday night against an old school ACC foe from Tobacco Road, the Cavaliers are back at it tomorrow against another long time conference rival when the Blue Devils make their way to JPJ.

Until NC State, though, Duke enters tomorrow’s game outside the Associated Press Top 25 and on the heels of an embarrassing 81-59 loss at Miami. in truth, the game wasn’t even as close as that gaudy score would even imply.

For first-year big whistle Jon Scheyer, the hope has to be that it’ll be the low point for a Duke squad that came in with relatively high expectations given the amount of talent that the Blue Devils had once again stockpiled. Yet it has not gone to script for Duke, despite beating Carolina 63-57 at home a week ago.

Had it not been for that victory over their bitter rivals in Cameron Indoor, you’d probably be having a very different conversation right now given the way the Heels fell flat on their faces the next time out against Wake Forest.

For UVa, things are in a different spot after a bounce-back win following the loss in Blacksburg as the Cavaliers now are tied for first place in the conference.

This weekend could determine a lot not only for these teams but for the league as a whole.

Duke isn’t in the AP’s Top 25 nor in KenPom’s, currently sitting 35th overall. Given the amount of potential for this team, that feels like quite the indictment for Scheyer and Co.

The Blue Devils typically have one of the nation’s better offenses but right now they’re 56th in offensive efficiency. Despite the iffy output, there’s little doubt that when they’re firing on all cylinders, especially with their size down low, they can be a real problem. That’s especially the case on the offensive glass, where Duke ranks third nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Yet this isn’t a particularly good shooting team, they turn it over at a pretty high clip, and they aren’t really getting to the line like they’re used to.

There really isn’t much else about this offense that stands out on paper. Everything, as it sometimes is with Duke, is about potential. The Blue Devils make just 32.3 percent of their 3s, which is a paltry 261st nationally, while hitting just below half of their twos, which is barely Top 200. And in an interesting twist, they currently rank 269th in adjusted tempo.

On defense, Duke is 31st nationally in efficiency thank in large part to its effective field-goal percentage (46.4, good enough for 30th nationally), the fact that the Blue Devils don’t allow many FTs (10th best in free throws to field goals rate), and have a Top 30 block percentage. Yet this is also a team that doesn’t force many turnovers.

Everything about this matchup for Duke starts in the post where the Blue Devils needs Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively to continue to mature and come into their own.

Filipowski, despite Duke’s struggles this year, might make a reasonable case for ACC Player of the Year. His mix of inside/out game has really been impressive at spots this season. On the year, the 7-footer is doing a tremendous job of cleaning up the offensive glass, shooting a solid percentage inside, making the occasional 3, and overall putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. He scored just nine in the loss in Coral Gables, which broke a nine-game streak of scoring in double figures.

Lively, meanwhile, has really come alive in the last bit. He had a monster game in the win over Carolina even though he scored just 4 points. It was that he pulled in 14 rebounds and had eight blocks that controlled the game at times, something he’s clearly capable of doing on a regular basis if he can get things pointed in the right direction.

The pairing of Filipowski and Lively is made all the more dangerous because Duke can also turn to Northwestern transfer Ryan Young. The 6-foot-10 senior isn’t the athlete that Lively is nor is he as fluid as Filipowski but he’s good at doing the things he does, especially around the bucket.

In the backcourt, Jeremy Roach continues to lead the way for the Blue Devils. After battling a toe injury that cost him three games and limited in a few others, the Leesburg native has been solid. He had back to back 20-point games in wins over Wake and Carolina. Given the guards UVa has, Roach is going to have to play at a high level and likely shoot something around his season percentage from deep (34.5) in order for the Blue Devils to leave Charlottesville with a win.

Duke also has a couple of wins to watch in Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell. Both have good-to-great length, a varied skillset, and have been up and down at times during their rookie year in Durham.

As we said earlier this week: Duke might be down but this is the one that will “feel” more marquee even though State has the better team. We said then the focus needed to be on the Wolfpack and UVa proved that to be the case. Now, the question becomes can the Hoos kick the Blue Devils when they’re down? Can they still be aggressive against Duke when it’s not at the apex of its villainous powers?

This is a game where Tony Bennett and Co. have a lot of cards and must play them well. The Wahoos are not exactly deep in the post and Duke will challenge them in the paint unlike most any team they’ve seen so far this year. Even Mitchell, at 6-foot-8, plays bigger than he is and that’s in addition to three other 7-foot(ish) guys to deal with. Needless to say, Virginia needs Kadin Shedrick to either come off the bench again and do what he did against NC State or to start off playing with that same level of intensity and lock in.

The Cavaliers are going to have to go small at times and how well they’re able to score in those situations, especially in terms of Ben Vander Plas being able to knock down some shots and space the floor, will go a long way to sorting out how this one unfolds.

While Duke has the power in the post, the Blue Devils might struggle to stay in front of UVa’s guards. Roach and Proctor and backup Jaylen Blakes will be tasked with keeping several guys out of the lane and that might be a task too tall.

All told, we like the matchup Filipowski has in this one but we think the Hoos can do enough to find a way to win the game. Reece Beekman called game in Durham a year ago and we expect him to have some really nice moments making the most of matchups in this one.