Virginia (1-0) versus Florida (1-0)
7 p.m., ACC Network
After a resounding win in Monday’s season opener against Tarleton State, UVa now leaves Charlottesville to take on a much bigger challenge.The Hoos will be in Charlotte tonight for a quality neutral-site game against the Florida Gators as part of the 2023 Hall of Fame Series.
Like UVa, UF cruised in its opener, handling Loyola (MD) 93-73 in Gainesville. Like the Cavaliers, the Gators are breaking in a number of newcomers and looking to find their footing in the early part of the season. They are coming off of a 16-17 season, their first losing record since the 2014-15 campaign. Florida is in its second season under Todd Golden, who came to Gainesville after an impressive run at San Francisco. The Gators were picked to finish eighth in the SEC preseason poll and currently rank as the fifth-best team on UVa’s schedule (KenPom).
Virginia and Florida have some recent history of course, and those games have gone poorly for the Wahoos. The two haven’t had a regular-season meeting in a long time but have played two NCAA Tournament contests, both lopsided wins for the Gators. Golden and Tony Bennett have a recent matchup as well, with San Francisco upsetting the Hoos 61-60 in November 2020. Oddly enough, that game was also the second contest of the season for both teams, and on a neutral floor, a couple of days after UVa comfortably won its season opener.
The Numbers
The Gators dispatched of Loyola (MD) in their opener on Monday night, leading wire-to-wire in a 20-point victory. Florida got up and down on the Greyhounds, and shot 65.2 percent on twos and 37.5 percent from 3 in the blowout win. The Gators scored 1.26 points per possession and forced 15 turnovers, though they did have 11 of their own.
Florida ranks No. 41 in KenPom heading into tonight’s game, down two spots from the opener and 12 spots behind the Wahoos. The Gators rank 41st in offensive efficiency and 44th nationally in defensive efficiency, though it is worth keeping in mind that these numbers are virtually all preseason projections and not influenced much by their win over Loyola (MD).
Their offensive numbers look strong and they shot the ball well on two-point tries, 24th best nationally in that category. The Gators didn’t take many 3-pointers in their win, with only 26 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. The pace at which they played on Monday stands out, with their average possession time at 13.4 seconds, 10th-fastest nationally. On defense, Florida ranks 25th nationally in steal rate, at 14.9.
The Matchups
Riley Kugel, Guard
Florida’s standout performer in the opener, Kugel dominated the Greyhounds with a game-high 23 points and four assists. He also forced six steals on the defensive end. Kugel is looking to build on a solid freshman season where he averaged 9.9 points and 2.8 rebounds per game, making 37.6 percent of his 3-pointers.
Tyrese Samuel, Forward
One of Florida’s many new faces, Samuel transferred to Gainesville after a solid career at Seton Hall. He averaged 11 points and 5.9 rebounds per game last year with the Pirates, and has appeared in well over 100 career games. Samuel started for the Gators on Monday, scoring 15 points in 26 minutes of game action, with ten free-throw attempts.
Micah Handlogten, Center
Another transfer, the former Marshall big man was briefly pursued by UVa after entering the transfer portal before a quick recruitment saw him land with the Gators. Handlogten had an impressive debut, scoring 16 points and grabbing six boards in 21 minutes of action on Monday, making a pair of 3-pointers. The 7-foot-1 sophomore was the Sun Belt Freshman of the Year last season with the Thundering Herd.
Alex Condon, Forward
Another big and another new player for the Gators, the freshman shined in his collegiate debut. The Australian big man played 17 minutes off the bench but made them count, scoring 13 points and making a pair of 3s.
Walter Clayton, Guard
We wrap up with yet another transfer addition. Clayton was a star at Iona, playing for Rick Pitino before entering the portal and signing with Florida. Clayton was the MAAC player of the year last year, leading the Gaels to the NCAA Tournament, and scoring 16.8 points per game. He is a dangerous outside shooter, making 43 percent of his 3s last year. In the season opener, Clayton scored nine points with eight rebounds, five assists, and three steals.
The Outlook
This one, like many early-season contests on neutral floors between power-conference teams, is tough to predict. This particular matchup is even tougher, given that both teams have so many new pieces playing significant minutes. Florida, in particular, seems like a totally different team than the group it rolled out last season, and that could mean variance between the preseason expectation and where the Gators end up.
This is a real “styles make fights” game, with two very different approaches going head-to-head. Florida was run-and-gun in the season opener and UVa plays famously slow. Typically, Virginia is able to slow down opponents in this type of matchup, playing a half-court game which can throw transition teams out of their rhythm. Against Florida, UVa can do that by taking care of the basketball and not allowing too many transition opportunities via steals.
This game is also a clash of different roster constructions: UVa is a smaller, positionless team that should be able to stretch Florida out, while the Gators are a bigger team that could give a light Cavalier frontcourt trouble on Friday night.
We’ll go with the Hoos in a close one, in what can only be described as a low-confidence pick. Both teams are figuring out who they are and both have the potential to be quite good. But playing against UVa in just the second game of the season could be a quite a challenge for a Florida team that wants to get up and down the court.
Regardless of outcome, both programs should get valuable experience against a quality opponent and learn a lot about who they are and what they need to improve in the process.