North Carolina at UVa

Saturday, Nov. 5

Noon, ACC Network

North Carolina Tarheels

Head Coach: Mack Brown

Conference: ACC

2022 Record: 7-1 (4-0 ACC)

“The South’s Oldest Rivalry” adds another chapter on tomorrow afternoon, this one filled with frustration by the Wahoos. UVa turned in an “offensive” performance last Saturday against the Miami Hurricanes in a 14-12 four-overtime loss, where no team scored a touchdown. This week the Cavaliers face a team that scores in bunches and will no doubt be motivated to further bury UVa in the fertile recruiting area that is the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Last week against the Canes, UVa struggled mightily in the red zone to produce TDs and was plagued again by dropped passes and poor execution. However, the defense stood tall and produced one of its finest games in years. Defensive Coordinator John Rudzinski deserves all the praise for turning around a group that was substandard the last couple seasons. Stopping the Tarheels, though, is a task that may prove to be too tall for this unit, especially with an offense that cannot score the football.

However, it cannot be forgotten that Mack Brown is 4-9 against UVa all time and has never won at Scott Stadium.

Brown brings his Tar Heels into Charlottesville with a 7-1 record overall and a perfect 4-0 conference record. The talent has never been an issue for Carolina, as the brand recruits well. This year quarterback Drake Maye has stepped in for All-ACC performer Sam Howell and continued Carolina’s offensive onslaught. The offense is averaging nearly 42 points per game, which ranks sixth in FBS. Maye (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) averages 334 yards passing per game and has thrown 29 touchdowns to just three interceptions. Simply put, the Carolina offense is a juggernaut. Last week against Pitt, the Heels amassed 474 yards of offense in a 45-24 rout of the Panthers. Maye leads the team in rushing as well with 439 yards.

North Carolina will use Omarion Hampton and Caleb Hood as the primary ball carriers. Hampton (6-foot, 200 pounds) has six touchdown this season. The Tar Heels have elite receiving targets in Antoine Green and Josh Downs. Green is a 6-foot-3, 200-pound receiver who averages 24 yards a catch. He has scored six touchdowns, including a long of 80. Downs is the familiar name and has had success against UVa in the past. The 5-foot-11, 175-pound speedster is fresh off an 11-catch performance against Pitt with two touchdowns. On the year, he has 48 receptions for 527 yards and seven scores.

In Carolina’s zone read/RPO heavy offense, there is potential for big plays all over the field. Offensive Coordinator Phill Longo meshes the passing prowess of the Air Raid with a power running game that has given UVa fits in the last few seasons. This year’s defense is much improved but with an ineffective offense, Carolina will get more possessions to put points on the board.

While North Carolina has a prolific and powerful offense, its defense leaves a lot to be desired. UNC ranks 122nd out of 131 FBS programs. This much-maligned unit has talent on all three levels but has struggled. This group gives up 462 yards a game and has surrendered 33 touchdowns in eight games.

If there’s a magic elixir for this UVa offense, the Carolina defense may be it. However, in the last month, they are keeping teams out of the end zone more than usual and forcing field goal tries which cannot happen when playing this Carolina offense.

Former UVa standout Noah Taylor had been one of the bright spots for UNC on defense but will be out for the rest of the season with a lower body injury. Without him, UNC will lean on leading tackler Cedric Gray to be a consistent force. Gray leads them with 83 total tackles. Power Echols (6-foot, 225 pounds) is the team’s second leading tackler from his linebacker position. The Tar Heels have a talented secondary with Storm Duck and two Virginia natives, Giovanni Biggers and Tony Grimes, also starting and playing major roles.

1. No empty possessions.

To keep pace with this UNC offense, UVa must end more drives with a kick, preferably an extra point. UNC will allow the Hoos to move the ball in between the 20s. It is imperative that they capitalize in the red zone, unlike last week. Play calling and execution must be sharp.

2. UVa’s defense has to be what it’s been this season.

The Wahoos have been a revelation, improving at every level and by every metric. To win this game, UVa must force turnovers and potentially score as well. It would help the offense tremendously by scoring a TD or two (which would be more than UVa’s offense has tallied in the last two games).

3. The Wahoos are going to need a little mojo.

Brown has not won in Charlottesville and Carolina has routinely struggled at Scott Stadium. Looking at the numbers, UVa is not supposed to win this game. We are going to need some special teams plays, missed field goals, and various mistakes to keep us in the ball game. How about a 1995 Antwan Harris re-do to ice the game?

UNC comes into Charlottesville on a roll with an impressive offense and a defense that has been keeping teams out of the end zone, albeit still giving up yards in bunches. Does this sound familiar? The UVa offense has moved the ball but has struggled to score. Brennan Armstrong and Co. need to put together their best efforts and the UVa defense must continue its resurgence.

It is hard to predict an offensive outburst for the Wahoos, although I do think we see the end zone this week. For our offense, there doesn’t seem to be any Bugs Bunny Secret Stuff coming, so I think we’ll marginally improve but ultimately fall short against the Tar Heels.