Published Jan 23, 2024
Preview: Wahoos get a rematch against the Wolfpack tomorrow
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber


NC State (13-5, 5-2 ACC) at UVa (13-5, 4-3 ACC)

7 p.m., ACC Network


Winners of two straight, UVa will look to keep its winning ways going on Wednesday night when the Hoos host NC State at JPJ. They finally found a way to win on the road over the weekend in Atlanta, and in tomorrow’s game they’ll look to remain perfect in Charlottesville after a 10-0 start on their home floor.

The rematch against the Pack will also be UVa’s first repeat opponent of the season. The Hoos and Wolfpack got together in Raleigh on January 6 and while UVa hung in the game for most of the first half, the end result wasn’t pretty. Virginia led by as many as six in the first half but trailed by seven at the break before ultimately getting down as many as 21 in the second half in the 76-60 loss at PNC Arena. It was one of several lopsided results on the road for UVa and demonstrated issues on both ends of the floor.

Since then, the Hoos are 2-1, losing to Wake Forest before their wins last week against Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. During the same span, NCSU is 2-2. After beating UVa, the Wolfpack were handled by rival UNC, won back-to-back high-scoring games against Louisville and Wake Forest, the latter of which got chippy at the end, and then lost to Virginia Tech at home over the weekend.


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The Numbers


In the first meeting, NC State rolled to victory with a solid shooting performance both inside and out. The Wolfpack made 18 of their 29 attempts from two (62.1 percent) and hit 10 of 28 from deep (35.7), both marks falling well above their season shooting averages. State was also held to just six turnovers and hit 10-of-12 free throws.

Conversely, the Pack held UVa to just 18 of 38 on two point attempts (47.4 percent) and the Cavaliers made just five 3s in the game on 15 tries. Most of those made came late in the contest with the result already decided.

Heading into Wednesday’s game, NC State ranks 69th in KenPom, a few spots lower than UVa which is now up to 60th after Saturday’s win. The Wolfpack rank 83rd in offensive efficiency, with their best attribute taking care of the basketball; State ranks 14th in turnover rate allowed and 18th in steal rate allowed. Defensively, NCSU ranks 60th nationally in efficiency; the Pack are 49th in turnover rate forced and 56th in steal rate.


The Matchups


D.J. Horne, Guard

NC State’s leading scorer, Horne scored 14 points against UVa in the first meeting and grabbed six boards with three assists and a pair of steals. Horne went 3-for-4 from 3 as well. On the season, the senior guard is averaging 15.1 points per game and scored 27 at Louisville on the 13th and 21 in the win over Wake last week.


Jayden Taylor, Guard

Taylor is a junior transfer from Butler who has made an immediate impact in Raleigh. Currently second on the team at 12.2 points per game, he went for 15 in the win over Virginia earlier this month, shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 2-for-5 from long range. Taylor has been cold from deep since, though, going 1-for-12 in his last four games and 0-for-8 in his last three outings.


D.J. Burns, Forward

NC State’s versatile big man, Burns scored just 6 points in the first meeting against UVa but certainly impacted the game. One of the best passing big men in the country, Burns took advantage of UVa’s double teams and passed out of them, finding the open man more often than not. In the win, he dished out four assists with just one turnover. Burns is third on the team in scoring at 12.2 and adds 4.3 rebounds along with 2.8 assists per contest.


Dennis Parker Jr., Guard

The Richmond native has already made an impact in his first season of college basketball and looks to have a bright future for the Wolfpack. Parker, who was candid about his motivation to play against UVa in the first meeting given that the Hoos didn’t really recruit him out of high school, went for 15 points in Round 1 including a pivotal deep 3 to beat the shot clock in the first half. Parker is averaging 6.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per contest this year, and his 15-point effort against UVa was his second-biggest output of the season (18 against Vanderbilt).


The Outlook


Clearly, NC State was the better team in the first meeting. UVa had trouble guarding around the rim and far away from it, and doubling Burns in the post usually didn’t work out too well. Still, Tony Bennett and his staff have seen the Wolfpack and now will get a chance to adjust to what wasn’t working and try to come up with a better plan. UVa’s lineups are different from that first meeting, too, as Jordan Minor was only used sparingly but has started all three games since. UVa also gets State at JPJ, where the Cavaliers have yet to lose.

It’s possible that tomorrow’s rematch looks a lot like the first game but there’s also a good chance that UVa looks like a much better team on its home floor, something we’ve seen from the Hoos through the first half of the season. Just as we had trouble picking them to win on the road at Georgia Tech given their road failures, we’re not going to pick against them in this game given their home successes.


The Pick

NC State 63

UVa 66