Virginia (11-4, 2-2 ACC) at Wake Forest (11-4, 3-1 ACC)
2 p.m., ESPN2
After a week off to regroup from another lopsided loss, UVa heads back out on the road this weekend, traveling down Route 29 to take on Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.
UVa is coming off ugly road setbacks at Notre Dame and NC State, looking for its first true road win of the season (0-3) tomorrow at the Joel. This is the longest the Hoos have had to wait for a road victory in a season since the 2009-10 campaign, when their first victory on an opponent’s home floor came on January 9 at NC State.
The opponent also enters with an 11-4 record but they arrived there in a different fashion. The Demon Deacons had a disappointing 2-3 start to the season, losing close games to Georgia, Utah, and LSU all away from home. A victory over Florida in the ACC/SEC Challenge and the approved waiver for Efton Reid helped turn Wake’s season around, leading to a nine-game winning streak that also included victories over Rutgers, Virginia Tech, BC, and Miami, and a 3-0 start to league play. That streak finally came to an end on Tuesday, when the Deacs dropped a road contest at suddenly hot Florida State.
Despite that loss, Wake carries a lot of momentum into Saturday’s contest and UVa has to prove it can win on the road, or at least be competitive, after getting dismantled in their previous three attempts away from JPJ. UVa did play well in “The Dash” last year, jumping out to a 19-point first-half lead on the way to a 76-67 victory.
The Numbers
Wake ranks 43rd in KenPom, fourth best among ACC teams behind Duke, UNC and Clemson. The surge in the last two months or so has been fueled by solid defense but even more by very efficient play on the offensive end.
The Demon Deacons rank 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency and are solid in a lot of areas with many different avenues to score points. They are a good shooting team, ranking 33rd nationally in effective field-goal percentage and 27th in 3-point percentage at 37.8. Wake is also succeeding in one area that UVa has struggled: shooting free throws. The Deacs are fourth nationally in free throw percentage at 79.9 percent. They are also a good two-point shooting team and take good care of the basketball, ranking 51st in turnover rate allowed.
Defensively Wake might not be quite as good as it is offensively, but the Steve Forbes’ bunch is not bad by any stretch. The Demon Deacons rank 91st nationally in defensive efficiency heading into this weekend’s game. Wake has been good around the rim defensively, allowing opponents to make just 46.6 percent of their two-point field goals; opponents are averaging a solid 34.3 percent from deep, however. Wake’s block rate is in the top-100 nationally, too, and the Deacs also don’t allow opponents to get to the line a lot, ranking 83rd in free throws allowed per field-goal attempt.
The Matchups
Boopie Miller, Guard
A big-time addition from the transfer portal, Miller has been great for Wake this season, leading the team in scoring at 17.9 points per game. He comes to the ACC after two years at Central Michigan and has been a great distributor, averaging 4.1 assists per contest in addition to his scoring. Miller is averaging a career best 38.8 percent from 3, too. He scored 27 points against Miami last weekend and 21 in the loss to FSU on Tuesday.
Hunter Sallis, Guard
Miller might be the leading scorer heading into the weekend but Sallis could easily pass him up. The former Gonzaga Bulldog is in the midst of a breakout season, going from 4.5 points per game last year to 17.8 points per this season. He is a solid outside shooter who has scored in double figures in each game this year and has seven 20+ point games this season.
Cam Hildreth, Guard
A veteran guard, Hildreth has continued to raise his game throughout his career and has developed into a very good guard for Forbes. The Englishman is averaging 16.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per contest, and is coming off of two 23+ point games in the last week. Hildreth is a physical guard who can get downhill and can knock down jumpers too, making 36.7 percent of his 3s.
Efton Reid, Center
Wake already had a lot of good guards but adding a 7-footer in December has proved extremely helpful. Reid, a Richmond native who played at both LSU and Gonzaga before landing in Winston-Salem, was ruled eligible in December and has played the last eight games for the Deacs. He is averaging 8.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, and given his height and skill, he should be a very difficult cover for the Hoos.
The Outlook
Perhaps UVa’s week off is well timed and this is where the Cavaliers can turn the corner. But to make that happen, they have to be a lot better on both ends of the floor. The defense needs to be more connected, miss fewer assignments, and play sound. Offensively, they have to fire away from 3 when they have opportunities and hit a good number of them, move well without the basketball, and control what they can control.
That’s a lot to ask of a group that hasn’t done those things on the road of late, but they do have capable players and a great coach that at least have a puncher’s chance to get things pointed in the right direction.
On the other side, UVa will face a Wake Forest team that is developing an identity and has a well-constructed roster that can make a run at ACC competitiveness and an NCAA Tournament bid. UVa will have to be locked in and find ways to slow down a potent offense that can score from the outside and at the rim. And of course, they’ll have to do it in Wake’s gym.
Maybe Virginia will turn it around tomorrow but we have to take the Deacs here. They have lost just once since November 19 and are unbeaten in Winston-Salem. UVa, meanwhile, is struggling to find solid ground away from JPJ and while its possible that they show up after a week off and turn things around, we’re in “show me” territory with the Hoos and can’t pick them on the road against a solid Wake team right now.