No. 16 Virginia (2-0, ACC) vs No. 5 Baylor (3-0, Big 12)

7 p.m., ESPN2

After a tumultuous week for the UVa community, the Virginia men’s basketball team will return to the court on tonight when the Cavaliers take on No. 5 Baylor in Las Vegas.

Friday’s game is the first of two for the Hoos in the Continental Tires Main Event, where on Sunday they’ll play either UCLA or Illinois depending on the results of the two contests today.

Baylor is one of the nation’s top teams and, like Virginia, recently reached the pinnacle of college basketball. The Bears won the 2021 national title, upsetting Gonzaga in the championship. Scott Drew’s program followed that up with another No. 1 seed the following year and battled through injuries, eventually falling to UNC in the second round of the Big Dance.

In 2022-23, Baylor is again expected to compete for a national title. The Bears were picked to win the competitive Big 12, edging out Kansas. And so far this season, they have rolled against mostly overwhelmed competition. They beat Mississippi Valley State 117-53 in the season opener before comfortable wins over Norfolk State and Northern Colorado, with all three games played in Waco.

Friday’s game will be a major test for both programs who have high expectations and have looked good so far, but are largely untested to this point.

Like UVa, the Bears are among the nation’s elite according to predictive metrics. They rank fifth in the KenPom rankings heading into the weekend and they’ll take on the Wahoos, ranked just one spot lower.

On offense, Baylor is third in adjusted efficiency and is near the top nationally in a host of categories. The Bears are eighth in adjusted two-point field-goal percentage. They have shot the ball well from the outside too, making 37.9 percent of their 3-pointers, with deep balls accounting for 51.8 percent of their shots. Baylor has shared the ball well too, running 12th in assists per made field goal ratio. The Bears have done well pretty much everywhere else on offense, too; they’ve been good on the glass, they haven’t turned the ball over much, and they’ve gotten to the line quite a bit.

On defense, Baylor is almost as good as it is on the other end. The Bears rank 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, allowing 61.7 points per game. Baylor has done a remarkable job taking the ball away from opponents, ranking seventh nationally in turnover rate. Even worse for opponents, many of those takeaways have been live-ball turnovers, mostly steals, where the Bears rank ninth nationally. Those live-ball takeaways often lead directly to points, especially for a team like Baylor that can get out and run. Baylor has done a good job protecting the rim, too. The Bears are allowing opponents to make just 44.7 percent of their attempts on two-pointers, and are 45th nationally in block rate.

Baylor has a deep and talented team, starting in the backcourt. Their leading scorer is senior guard Adam Flagler, one of the remaining players from its title team. Flagler, who originally joined the Bears from Presbyterian, is averaging 17.4 points, 1.7 steals and a staggering 7.7 assists per contest. He had a 10-assist effort in a blowout win over Northern Colorado on Monday night. He is also a dead-eye outside shooter, making 57.9 percent of his 3s this season. Flagler is joined in the backcourt by elite freshman Keyonte George, who is making an immediate impact at the college level. George has scored in double figures in all three games, including a 23-point effort against Norfolk State where he made six 3-pointers. He too has been an excellent distributor too, averaging 6.7 assists per game. Finally, junior guard L.J. Cryer is another talented scorer, averaging 14.3 points per game. Cryer is shooting just 31 percent from deep so far this season, but he shot nearly 47 percent from beyond the arc last year and he is taking nearly 10 per game.

In the frontcourt, Baylor received another immediate contribution, this time from the transfer portal. Jalen Bridges left West Virginia for its conference rival in Waco, and is off to a great start to his Baylor career. Averaging 16 points per game, Bridges has scored at least 13 points per game despite playing no more than 22 minutes per contest. He is shooting 64 percent from the floor, and is a perfect 12-for-12 from the stripe as well. At center, Flo Thamba will defend the rim and should be in for a showdown with Virginia’s Kadin Shedrick. Thamba has had a chance to rest in some lopsided wins, playing just 19.7 minutes per contest to this point. The 6-foot-10 senior is still averaging 5.7 points and 5.3 boards per game, and has had at least one block in each of Baylor’s games.

Tonight’s game will be a fantastic test for a Virginia team that looks to be much improved, and will use this weekend as a measuring stick going forward. Obviously the Cavaliers will be playing with heavy hearts given what has gone on back in Charlottesville this week, and it’s certainly been a tough week for the program. Hopefully playing Friday’s game will be a welcome distraction from the tragedy on Grounds.

From a basketball standpoint, Baylor is a perfect opponent for a team like Virginia looking to see what it needs to work on. The Bears are physical, mature, they can shoot and run the floor, and they defend. They’re a well-coached team too, with plenty of players who know what it takes to win. Virginia will challenge Baylor too, just over a week into the season.

The recipe for UVa will be to play the game at its pace, force Baylor into some misses, and cash in with made 3-pointers. Easier said than done, against one of the nation’s best teams.

If Virginia can get at least one win in the two games this weekend, that would be a good sign for the Hoos going forward. Even if they can just play Baylor close, that should be seen as a positive, as the Bears will likely go into the NCAA Tournament poised for a deep run. Based on what we’ve seen so far, UVa could win this game if the Cavaliers can play consistently on both ends.

Ultimately we’ll go with the Bears in a close one, just because they’re a team that has played a bit more together and have three games under their belt to this point. There’s no shame in losing a game like this, but the Hoos also have an opportunity to make a major statement in the second week of the season.