Published Jan 5, 2024
Preview: UVa heads to Raleigh hoping to end its road woes
Justin Ferber  •  CavsCorner
Editor In-Chief
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@justin_ferber


Virginia (11-3, 2-1 ACC) at NC State (10-3, 2-0 ACC)

2 p.m., ACC Network


After getting back on track Wednesday night with a blowout win over Louisville, UVa will look to show that it can perform away from JPJ this weekend when the Wahoos travel to Raleigh to face NC State.

UVa is looking for its first win at PNC Arena in nearly five calendar years, last winning at State on Jan. 29, 2019 in overtime.

While the Cavaliers are looking to find a winning formula on the road after losing both of their road contests thus far, the Wolfpack are looking to start 3-0 in conference play for the first time in a decade. A win over UVa would also be State’s best, by far, in league play. NC State won its ACC opener back in early December, knocking off Boston College in overtime. Then, on Wednesday, the Pack rallied to sneak by suddenly formidable Notre Dame, winning on a last-second shot in South Bend 54-52.

While NC State is seen as a fringe NCAA Tournament team at this point, its resume is certainly interesting heading into this weekend. The Pack have just three losses and, like UVa, all came away from home. Two of their losses came against top-10 KenPom teams in BYU (4th) and Tennessee (6th). The other came on the road by 20 but at the hands of a still unbeaten Ole Miss team.

The problem right now is that State doesn’t have any notable wins yet, its best being the victory at No. 90 Boston College, the only win against a top-100 opponent and one of only three against teams in the top 200 of the KenPom rankings (No.166 Notre Dame and No.197 Abilene Christian).


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The Numbers


Heading into this weekend’s clash, NC State ranks 74th overall in KenPom, making the Wolfpack the fifth-highest ranked team UVa has played thus far. They are solid on both ends of the floor, ranking 84th nationally in offensive efficiency and 64th on D. They have played games in the mid-to-high 80’s, and on Wednesday, they won a game in the low 50’s.

NC State’s offense struggled at Notre Dame but for the most part it’s been relatively good. The Pack do a great job taking care of the basketball, ranking 5th nationally in turnovers allowed. They also rank 15th in steals allowed and 66th in block rate allowed. They are shooting 34 percent from deep and 50.6 percent on twos with a balanced scoring lineup. They are another team that is more comfortable playing at a faster pace, ranking 67th fastest nationally in offensive possession length. ‘

Defensively, State has been good this year for the most part, and many of its high-scoring games are a byproduct of high possession numbers with an up-tempo style. The Wolfpack do a good job turning teams over with an athletic backcourt, ranking 54th nationally in turnover rate. They are also solid defending the paint, allowing opposing teams to make just 48.5 percent of their two-point attempts, though they do have a low block rate, ranking 257th nationally in the category. While State likes to get up and down, the Pack play a lot of their defense in the halfcourt; opponents are 340th nationally in average possession length.


The Matchups


D.J. Burns, Forward

A handful for any team to defend, Burns will likely prove a particularly difficult matchup for this UVa team, given how the Wahoos are constructed. The 6-foot-9, 275-pound senior is averaging 13.2 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, but is also an excellent passer, handing out 2.7 assists per contest. Burns has scored 10+ points in his last seven contests and it will be interesting to see how UVa tries to stop him in this one. The Cavaliers held Burns to 8 points in 34 minutes last year but that was a different UVa roster.


D.J. Horne, Guard

The Pack’s leading scorer is a different D.J. Averaging 14.5 points and 3.1 assists per game, the Raleigh native is back home for his senior season after two-year stints at both Illinois State and Arizona State. Horne has been a very good outside shooter through his career, making 38.6 percent of his 3s over 4+ seasons, and 44 percent of them this year. He was quiet at Notre Dame though, making just 3 of 14 shots for 8 points in 30 minutes.


Casey Morsell, Guard

It may be hard to believe, but the former Virginia Cavalier is now in his third season with the Wolfpack and has played 23 more games at NC State than he did at UVa. Morsell is matching his 11.8 points per game average from last year in this season, starting every game for the Pack. He is struggling a bit with the outside shot, making 34.6 percent, but showed last year that he’s capable of knocking down good looks when he shot a career best 41.1 percent from deep.


Jayden Taylor, Guard

Another transfer addition, Taylor comes to NC State following a two-year spell at Butler in his hometown of Indianapolis. He has fit right in with the Wolfpack, where he’s started every game, averaging 12.9 points per contest in just under 30 minutes of action. Taylor is an athletic guard who can slash to the basket but is also a decent outside shooter at 35.6 percent. Back in his home state this week, Taylor had 12 points in Wednesday’s win at Notre Dame.


The Outlook


Tomorrow’s game is a big opportunity for the Wahoos, as they attempt to show that what happened last Saturday in South Bend was an outlier. They haven’t been the same away from JPJ, and on Wednesday, Tony Bennett said that starts with the team believing in who they are and playing with humility. They also need to be tighter on the defensive end, where there were far too many lapses against the Irish, coupled with bad shooting on the other end.

NC State isn’t an unbeatable team, but the Pack are talented and have a shot at the NCAA Tournament. They also have a team with athletic guards and some post options, including Burns, that could spell trouble for the Cavaliers.

If UVa can go to Raleigh and win, that would be an impressive one-week turnaround from how things looked in the last road game. If they lose, it’s not the end of the world, but the Hoos have to at least be competitive after really rough showings at Memphis and Notre Dame.

We have to take the Wolfpack at home and are in “show me” mode with this UVa team away from home. Perhaps this is the game they put it all together and play connected basketball on both ends of the floor, but given the matchups, the location and Virginia’s recent play away from Charlottesville, it could be another tough afternoon for the Wahoos.


The Pick

UVa 62

NC State 66